Go Jets!
Only 4 games this weekend, so I’ll pump up my word count with some QB rankings for 2010’s fantasy season. I figure it’s a good idea to get these thoughts written down somewhere so I’ll have a starting point in July. What’s that, you say? Most drafts don’t happen till at least August? Maybe so, but when do you think prep should start? For some of us, there is no offseason! RBs will probably be next week, unless I decide to use them to seriously inflate the column where I pick the Super Bowl.
Oh, btw, now that Yahoo!’s Pick ‘em game has ended, I’ll be using vegas.com for the lines. Since I’m a Harrah’s kind of guy, I’ll use whatever Caesars is using.
NYJ @ CIN (-2.5): this one’s tough because the Bengals faded down the stretch, even before they rested starters and went vanilla in Week 17. I don’t know which of Bill Simmons’ playoff rules trumps the other between “don’t take a rookie QB on the road” and “when in doubt, back the better coach”, but since Sanchez isn’t QB as much as he is a “guy who hands the ball off”, I’m going to take the Jets here.
PHI @ DAL (-4): despite living near Philly, I was born and raised in Middlesex County NJ and am lucky enough to get the FAN on my car radio down here. So, when I hear Francessa talking about how the Eagles rarely blitzed last Sunday against the ‘boys, I know it’s a big issue that’ll be corrected come Saturday. I like the Birds to beat the spread, but I still hope they find a way to lose, as dealing with Eagles fans at work during a playoff run is one of the more annoying aspects of my job.
BAL @ NE (-3.5): Irresistible force – Pats don’t like to stop the run and the Ravens have Ray Rice as well as Willis McGahee to vulture his TDs. Immovable object – Ravens don’t like to stop the pass and the Pats still have Brady, Moss, Ben Watson and Kevin Faulk out of the backfield. Irresistible force – serious Ewing Theory potential with Edelman replacing Welker. This last one trumps everything else. I’m a little concerned about that half-point, but I’ll still go NE here to cover.
GB @ ARI (-1): throw out last week b/c ARI played not to get hurt while, for some reason, GB felt like showing off. Kurt Warner’s due for a stinker and GB would be favored by 2 on a neutral field. University of Phoenix Stadium isn’t THAT much of a home-field advantage so I like the Packers to win outright.
QB Rankings
1) Peyton Manning
2) Drew Brees – falls in behind Peyton b/c the yardage totals weren’t there each and every week, but he’s really 1b to Peyton’s 1a.
3) Aaron Rodgers – the consensus ‘best fantasy QB’ by some metric like ‘yards per attempt’ or something. Still not #1 though since he’s still young and too many late-season games occur outdoors.
4) Philip Rivers – still seems to be at the mercy of his WRs getting open. When VJax is covered, he goes to Gates and vice versa, but there will come a day when he can’t go to either and then what does he do? Yes, I’m grasping at straws here; I’d gladly go to battle with him as my QB.
5) Tony Romo – if I committed to overpaying for Miles Austin, I should overpay for the guy throwing him the (damn) ball, right?
6) Tom Brady – okay, you caught me, I wanted to knock Brady down as far as I could and this is as far as I’m willing to go. Ranking Romo ahead of him feels like sacrilege, but I still think it’s justifiable.
7) Matt Schaub – I tried to rank him higher, but then I remembered all those games where he faded when he should’ve stepped up. He’ll get Owen Daniels back at TE, but will he be the same?
8) Brett Favre – another year older and you never want a guy in his ‘he lost it’ year.
9) Ben Roethlisberger – gotta watch this situation closely come pre-season. Bruce Arians survived the ax but I wouldn’t be surprised if he had to sign a contract committing more to the running game, if only to keep PIT’s under-achieving D off the field.
10) Kurt Warner – also another year older but without a running game to lean on like Brett has.
11) Donovan McNabb – if you’re in a league where you draft ‘team qbs’, put “Philly QB” a couple of slots higher as McNabb/Kolb is a good one-two punch. DJax and Celek were studs this year and Maclin will have another year under his belt as well. Can’t go wrong!
12) Eli Manning – hmmm… thought he’d crack the top ten… must be the ‘hometown discount’ kicking in. Keep in mind that, going into 2009, the WR/TE corp was an ‘area for concern’ and now it’s the only strength. That has to say something about Eli, right?
13) Vince Young – too dynamic to drop any further. Kenny Britt will be the next Rutgers alum to make ‘the leap’, a la Ray Rice.
14) Kyle Orton – the second year with Josh McDaniels should be better, but will Brandon Marshall be there? Will Eddie Royal re-emerge? Another situation to monitor closely; Orton could sink like a rock.
15) Matt Ryan – gets an ‘incomplete’ for 2009.
16) Alex Smith – what to watch for in pre-season: commitment to the ‘spread shotgun’ offense. Also, Crabtree’s first training camp. Feels odd ranking him higher than Cutler and Cassel, but he’s got a better track record.
17) Jay Cutler – Chicago fired offensive coordinator Ron “oh, we need 6 yards for a first down? Throw a 5 yard curl” Turner, so anyone else has to be an improvement. Still, how many of Jay’s league-leading INTs were the system’s fault and how many were his?
18) Matt Cassel – second year in KC and now Charlie Weis comes in to coordinate the O. Can you smell the upside?
19) David Garrard – but only play him at home.
20) Everyone else not named Matt Hasselbeck.
21) Matt Hasselbeck. Seriously, retire. Yesterday. You’re done.
Last week: 6-9-1
Overall: 124-129-3