This column started off early on Saturday as just another picks column. However, as the chores piled up, time went on and it became obvious I wasn’t getting this out such that TC could post it before Sunday morning I decided to roll my ‘fantasy post-mortem’ into it so it would have value either way you wish to read it. It was an interesting fantasy season for me. In my money league, I bottomed out at 3-6 before finishing 6-7 and sneaking into the playoffs (5th out of 12 teams) where I promptly lost in week 14; read on to learn what star QB sunk me. In my free league, I turned the #2 seed into a Yahoo virtual bronze trophy for 3rd.
IND (-8.5) @ BUF: lost in all the hoopla surrounding what the Colts did in Week 16 and the emergence of Pierre Garcon is the fact that Dallas Clark is now the #1 TE in fantasy. In my money league where only TEs get a PPR bonus, I would probably take him just after the upper tier of WRs go off the board. In this game, I like Buffalo. Sure, they still can’t stop the run, but the Colts will have to throw occasionally and it’s Curtis Painter slingin’ the pigskin back there and the Bills still have a stingy pass D.
JAC @ CLE (-1.5): MJD may be at or near the top in TDs, but his receptions slid this year and his yardage wasn’t what it should’ve been. Part of it was David Garrard’s inconsistency but part of it was the playcalling. Trading Mike Sims-Walker while his stock was high to get Thomas Jones was one of the highlights of my season. The fact that I had to package him with SJax wasn’t so high, but more on that later. Cleveland’s Jerome Harrison was firmly on both my benches for the fantasy playoffs during his breakout week, but I got beat so badly in one game it wouldn’t have mattered. If you’re gonna lose, lose big, I always say. Harrison will be overvalued in 2010; tread carefully because you don’t want to waste a 2nd/3rd round pick on 2010’s Amos Zereoue or Kevan Barlow. In this game, I like the Jags b/c of the whole underdog thing.
CHI (-3) @ DET: so much for Jay Cutler being the rising tide that raises the boats of Matt Forte, Devin Hester and Greg Olsen. While few probably predicted Cutler being so bad, you have to admit there were signs that Forte wasn’t all that, even though you pretty much HAD to take him in the first round, just in case. His YPC just isn’t there and if it weren’t for receptions, he’d be horrible. To tell you how good the champion of the money league I’m in is, he drafted Forte first but made up for it with Chris Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, DJax and decent TEs in later rounds. Kevin Smith is another who showed that he’s just not that good. In this game, I like the Lions since the Bears’ adrenaline is probably all used up.
SF (-7) @ STL: here’s the rest of my ‘big trade’ story: after 9 weeks of watching my #2 pick stay out of the end zone which partially led to my 3-6 record, I had to do something drastic. The guy with TJones needed a WR and, like I said, I wanted to sell MSW high. But that very week, Deangelo Williams got a little hurt and he panicked, putting him on IR. Now I had to give him a RB too. In retrospect, I should’ve offered PT, but I’m a mark for him. My reasoning was that SJax’s workload would cause him to get hurt, which it did, but not until after he really found his stride for 4-5 weeks in a row (despite rarely practicing between games). Luckily, once my week 14 money-league playoff came around, TJ finally outproduced him, but I still lost b/c of other reasons. Had I made it to a ‘money game’ in Week 16, TJ would’ve played and played well, while SJax was inactive. Vernon Davis was a key waiver-wire pickup for me in my free league, although he still has trouble with drops. He’s probably #2 or #3 next year. It’ll bear watching in the pre-season how committed the 9ers will be to their spread-shotgun offense. I won a title in 2008 with Tyler Thigpen running a similar offense in KC so it could mean good things for Alex Smith. Even Frank Gore would benefit as he has great hands; I’d rank him one spot above SJax next year regardless, though. As for this game, I like the Rams here; the 9ers have nothing to play for and 7 is thus too high in my book.
PIT (-3) @ MIA: I have no desire to fact-check this, but I’m pretty sure if I did nothing else beyond bet against the Steelers and Giants all year, I’d have made a killing. No point in changing this up now; back the Fins. I had Hines Ward in one league and he did pretty well until his age caught up to him and I think the decline has just about begun. Beware in 2010, but the reverse most likely holds true for Santonio Holmes. Rashard Mendenhall most likely won’t carry your team in 2010 b/c Bruce Aryans likes to throw so much but is worth a roster spot; keep an eye on him in preseason. Heath Miller is an interesting TE going forward, but he falls behind even 2nd tier guys like Owen Daniels, Brent Celeck and Jermichael Finley. Big Ben simply spreads the ball around too much to make Heath a week-in, week-out play.
NYG @ MIN (-9): Favre was another ‘rising tide’ that should’ve brought AP to the next level, but all Favre did was elevate himself and the WR corp. Expect another summer of “will he, won’t he” and the answer to that will directly affect Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin and Vincente Schianco. AP probably moves to #3 next year, behind CJ and MJD. For NY, Brandon Jacobs looks to have completed a Christian Okoye-esque career; avoid him next year but keep an eye on Ahmad Bradshaw. Eli may now be in the top 10 QBs in the league and his young WR corp will only get better. Guys like Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith now warrant drafting over aging vets like Hines Ward and possibly Donald Driver. In this game, I finally like the Giants to keep things close.
ATL (-2.5) @ TB: The Bucs never recovered from the elevation of under-qualified Raheem Morris to the head coaching position and his subsequent firing of the O-coord. Josh Freeman may have improved slightly since getting thrown to the wolves but the lack of an annual “Antonio Bryant comes out of nowhere to lead many fantasy teams to titles” event doesn’t bode well. The RB situation is still a mess and I feel really sorry for Derrick Ward, who left the Giants to make big bucks in Tampa only to lose his job to perennially injured Cadillac Williams. Kellen Winslow continued to fall from the realm of ‘very good’ TEs to ‘bye week fill-in”. Up north in the ATL, Matt Ryan had a sophomore slump, but I could be talked into buying low on him in 2010. Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White are great pass-catchers to own, but I’d be wary of Michael Turner yet again. I like the Dirty Birds to cover here, figuring the Bucs just want their season from hell to end already.
NO @ CAR (NL): no Brees and no PT for the Saints means virtually no chance. Take the Panthers. Next year, it would be great if CAR could trade either D-Will or J-Stew and provide clarity to the one remaining RB, but they probably won’t. They almost have to go back to Delhomme at QB as well, due to the exorbitant contract. Bottom line: this all makes the Cats a shaky source of fantasy production. You’d want D-Will on your team for sure, maybe in the 2nd or 3rd round, but beyond that…? Down on the bayou, I count myself among the plethora of owners who got totally screwed by how Sean Payton used (or failed to use) Pierre Thomas. I drafted him as a #2 in one league and a #3 in another and he barely lived up to the #3 billing when he did play. Mike Bell probably isn’t going anywhere, but if the Saints cut Reggie Bush loose, that should, in theory, mean good things for PT next year.
NE @ HOU (-8): don’t get this line at all, as there’s every indication that all Pats will play the whole game. This includes Tom Brady, who killed my main team in week 14 by performing as if his new child came out of him instead of Gisele. Mainly out of spite, I’ll probably rank him #4 or #5 next year and elevate Aaron Rodgers and possibly Philip Rivers above him. Matt Schaub may come in at #6; too many games where he’d falter down the stretch and if there’s one thing I can’t tolerate it’s unfulfilled potential. I had Steve Slaton as my #2 in a PPR league, so he wasn’t terrible and he only tanked me the week he fumbled early on and got benched.
PHI @ DAL (-3): this game features not one but two players I will gladly overpay for next year, Miles Austin and Desean Jackson. Which means they’ll get hurt in week 1, but still…. I also wish I had slept on Celeck in my money league instead of burning a high pick on Gates but in my defense, there was no one else I could’ve taken in that spot. Both teams feature running games best described as ‘interesting’, so both situations bear watching during the pre-season. Can MBIII reclaim past glory and if not, is it Choice or Jones who supercedes him? In Philly, can McCoy really be the second coming of Westbrook or is he just a ‘very nice’ RB and nothing more? This game will be a war so I’ll take the Birds.
KC @ DEN (-13): this line was undoubtedly generated before Josh McDaniels had his “I’M KEITH HERNANDEZ” moment and benched Brandon Marshall AND Tony Scheffler. I can only imagine the morale in the Broncos locker room after that. As such, gotta go with the Chiefs here. In 2010, there are a lot of players to like from both these teams. Orton played okay, even well at times. Marshall is still a stud. Knoshown Moreno was a victim of his O-line, but still warrants buy low consideration over guys like Kevin Smith, Darren McFadden, Brandon Jacobs, Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook and just behind a guy like Mendenhall. On the Chiefs’ side of the ball, Jamaal Charles is another candidate for the Amos Zereoue award, but I’d rank him a bit higher than Harrison b/c I also think Cassel improves in his 2nd year in KC. Dwayne Bowe wasn’t too terrible before his suspension and is worth monitoring in the pre-season.
BAL (-10.5) @ OAK: remember during my RB preview when I said Ray Rice was rocketing up my draft board? I really wish he had rocketed up higher. If I had drafted him rather than PT, I’d probably be a few bucks richer by now. He’s a solid #3 in 2010, with or without TDs. Flacco’s sophomore slump makes him another buy low candidate, albeit a lower one than Matt Ryan. Flacco will probably be asked to be more of a game manager than Ryan will, plus Derrick Mason isn’t getting any younger and Todd Heap will go back to sucking in week 1. Oakland is still a mess but Louis Murphy and Chad Schillens deserve looks in deeper leagues and TE Zach Miller is a good #2. I like Balmer in this game as they have more to play for. This HAS to be the week where OAK stops trying, right?
GB @ ARI (-3.5): first off, take the Pack. Second of all, everything Cardinals related is tied directly to Kurt Warner, as Matt Leinart looked awful, both when starting and relieving. The closest to a sure thing may be Beanie Wells. I think we’ll see Ken Wisenhunt move even closer to a power running oriented offense, regardless of Warner’s status. If you think I’m crazy and think that Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin will succeed with Leinart, look no further than the stats of the game(s) Leinart had to start. With respect to the Packers, I said back in August that I wanted to see another great year from Rodgers before moving him into the #3 spot and I saw just that. The scary thing is that he did it by utilizing all his targets, making him a true ‘rising tide’. I did get caught in the Greg Jennings slump, which I attempted to mitigate by trading for Driver just as he entered his slump. Both will slide down my board next year, but rising will be Jermichael Finley and their D.
WAS @ SD (-4): Jim “Dead Man Walking” Zorn has to fly his team clear across the country with nothing to play for. Doesn’t sound like a recipe for a close game to me. Even if Rivers gives way to Volek, Billy is still a viable QB option against a team going nowhere, so take the ‘bolts. Fantasy-wise, don’t let Gates’ final numbers fool you. As one who owned him, let me just say there were simply too many weeks where he got 4 catches for 40 yds and not much else. It wasn’t until opposing Ds started taking away Vincent Jackson that Rivers had to start looking at Gates again. And even then, he was hardly ever targeted near the goal line; most of his TDs came from at least 15 yds away. As VJax ascends, Gates will descend. He’s clearly fallen behind Dallas Clark and maybe behind Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis, too. Still ahead of Witten and Gonzo, at least.
TEN (-4) @ SEA: if there’s one mistake I wish I had back it’d have to be undervaluing Chris Johnson. I was biased against him as early as the Hall of Fame game, where I saw LenDale White trot out to vulture a TD, just like he did umpteen times in 2008. I was worried CJ would struggle due to Kerry Collins regressing and, while I was right about that, I was way wrong about VY. CJ will be the #1 pick in many leagues next year and it’s well-deserved. Also due consideration would be Rutgers alum Kenny Britt, who really took off after VY took over. On the other side of the ball, Matt Hasselbeck needs to retire ASAP. I was forced to start him too many weeks as my #2 in my free league b/c my other choice was Carson Palmer and the Bengals went run-heavy this year. Watching ‘hawks games via sportsline.com nearly gave me ulcers. Too many times I saw “Hasselbeck pass for x INTERCEPTED” or, even worse “Hasselbeck SACKED…. FUMBLE”. The running game wasn’t much better, mainly b/c Jim Mora Jr never got it through his thick skull that Julius Jones isn’t a lead back and Justin Forsett is light-years ahead. I like the Titans to cover.
CIN @ NYJ (-10): ah yes, the reason I had to start Hasselbeck in more games than he should’ve been started in – Carson Palmer and the run-heavy Bengals. Luckily, this was mitigated by also having CedBen, but his lack of receptions and TD drought down the stretch was another nail in my coffin. I’m really not sure about any of Cincinnati’s players in 2010, beyond Ochocinco. As far as the Jets go, Sanchez was no Matt Ryan or even Joe Flacco and Braylon “Dropsies” Edwards didn’t help matters. Luckily, there’s always Thomas Jones; I have to think it was karma that forced me into such a lopsided trade to get him after I ranked him so low back in August. Keep in mind he’ll be 31 or 32 by the start of next year and he’s got some mileage on him. In this game, I actually like the Bengals. JT O’Sullivan is a capable backup and 10 points is a very large amount of points to lay on those “same old Jets”.
Last week: 7-9
Week before last: 8-7-1
Overall: 118-120-2