Welcome to Week 3 of JMPicks! Seems a funny thing happened since the last time I did this regularly – favorites learned how to cover the spread! With that in mind, let’s get started.
WAS (-6.5) @ DET – call me crazy, but I think this could be the week the Lions win a game. The ‘skins only managed 3 FGs against the Rams and that was at FedEx Field. I like the Lions to at least keep it close, if not upset.
GB (-6.5) @ STL – Normally I’d take the Rams off of the close game they played on the road last week, but I can’t take the thought of GB getting out to a large lead and the Rams not being able to come back. With some trepidation, I’ll take the Pack.
SF @ MIN (-7) – speaking of teams not being able to come back… do the Niners have a QB or do they just plug in someone from the stands to hand off to Frank Gore and ‘throw’ for 100 yards. The Vikes are 2-0 against the spread on this young season. Why tempt fate?
ATL @ NE (-4) – sigh…. The Patriots will right the ship this week… won’t they? Belichek will have something in store for Matt Ryan… won’t he?
TEN @ NYJ (-2.5) – this one could be ugly, but I have to believe TEN can’t start the season 0-3. Take the Titans. (TC, I hope this is wrong. TEN going 0-3 will likely keep them out of the playoffs, which is only good for the Jets)
KC @ PHI (no line) – Kolb will get the start again. The Eagles’ D will play better simply b/c the Chiefs don’t have the quantity of playmakers the Saints have. Back the birds.
NYG (-6.5) @ TB – G-men are banged up at D-line and secondary and their LBs suck. Leftwich is quietly having a nice little season for the Bucs. They could keep it close, if not win outright. Take the Bucs.
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CLE @ BAL (-13.5) – The Browns are a mess and I have a hunch they hate Mangini. This number seems high, but BAL was a similar favorite against the Chiefs and they covered. Gotta roll with them.(TC: I didn’t think I’d like the Ravens with a big spread, but Cleveland is awful and hasn’t scored a TD yet this year. I love the Ravens this week.)
JAC @ HOU (-4) – The Texicans’ D can’t stop anyone and, last I checked, the Jags still had Maurice Jones-Drew. They’ll keep it close.(TC: The Jags haven’t looked good at all and I think Houston will take this game pretty easily. 4 is a fine number here.)
NO (-6) @ BUF – as a double owner of Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell in FFL, I know the Saints have concerns about their run game. It doesn’t matter; they’ll just throw a lot this week and cover like they normally do. Their D-coord, Greg Robinson, used to coach the Bills and is probably out for a little revenge. (TC: 6-6.5 is the number for this game. I’m not sure about Buffalo yet, but I like the Saints. Not sure if I’ll touch this game though.)
CHI (-2) @SEA – this’ll probably be week 1 of the ongoing Seneca Wallace show in the Northwest. Matt Forte should finally get on track for the Bears this week and lead his team to a win of at least a FG.
PIT (-4) @ CIN – Palmer’s healthy, Cedric Benson is running well and the Steelers don’t cover spreads. Take the Bungles.
DEN (-1.5) @ OAK – Oakland is still doubling as “Team Frisky”. Can’t bet against that! Denver’s been doing some weird WR rotation thing, much to the chagrin of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal owners. Their shutdown corner will be on whomever the #1 WR is at any given time, forcing Orton to find anyone else. He has yet to prove he can. Take the Raiders.
MIA @ SD (-6) – lost in all the hoopla Monday night regarding the Fins losing despite having the ball for more than 3 quarters was the fact that their D is suspect and their O can’t come from behind. Take the bolts.(TC: Chad can’t throw more than 10 yards, but SD didn’t look great last week. I don’t think I’ll touch this game, but SD should win this easily.)
IND @ ARI (-2.5) – This is one of those “I like to take the home team during ‘special games’” things. I like ‘zona.
CAR @ DAL (-9) – This is another. No way in hell the ‘boys drop two in a row at home. They’ll come out blazing and never look back.
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I may be making some last minute changes. Check back Sunday. For example, Randy Moss didn’t practice today and Welker was limited again. I may have to swing that pick back to ATL.
I’m now taking ATL and BUF to beat their spreads. This is due to weather.
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