Hey, all. JMP back again with more NFL knowledge. Back before I became a
fantasy football expert, I was pretty good at picking against the spread. Like
with fantasy football, I have some rules. Actually, I have one rule: most
players and coaches are stupid. They can’t stand prosperity, they play down
to the levels of their opponents and believe their own hype. In short, they
don’t cover spreads.
I usually make my picks by taking all the underdogs and
then looking at each game for ANY reason to take the favorite. It may seem
conservative, but the rule has served me well. I hope it serves you well too!
(For the record, I’m using Yahoo’s spreads. For the other record, had I picked
the Thursday night game, I would’ve taken PIT at -6 and lost (I generally go
with the home team in ‘special’ games). So I am already 0-1.)
MIA @ ATL (-4) – I’m taking MIA here, as 4 is actually a pretty big number. MIA has
a great D and their conservative O can keep ATL’s O off the field. I would avoid
this game if I could. (ECG: MIA is conservative because their QB can only throw 5 yards)
DEN @ CIN (-4) – Neither team truly inspires me, so When in doubt, I take the underdog. The Bengals winning by a FG feels about right. Denver is the pick here.
MIN (-4) @ CLE – Jamal Lewis wasn’t running well in pre-season and now he and
newly-minted starter Brady Quinn have to take on Jared Allen, the Williams Wall and
the rest of the great MIN D. Oh, I hear MIN’s got a new QB. Take MIN. (ECG: My favorite pick this week and will be in a few parlays)
Click more for the rest of the picks…
JAC @ IND (-7) – back in the day, I’d do research to see if JAC usually plays
IND tough. These days, I’ll just assume they do. I have concerns about all the
IND changes and 7 is a really high number, so JAC is the pick.
DET @ NO (-13) – this looks like an easy NO pick on paper, but they have no D.
DET is desperate for a win and could pull out all the stops. Even if NO has a lead,
they will probably relax and let DET get close. Take DET. I would avoid
this game if I had to. (ECG: Not bad advice. Re-thinking my picks for Sunday)
DAL (-6.0) @ TB – TB is one of those teams who jumped on the ‘fire your O coord’
bandwagon and is thus a team in disarray. I have zero confidence in their new
coach and with his annointing of Leftwich as his QB and a 2-2-1 RB rotation, I
doubt his players have much confidence in him. DAL *could* mess this up, but
it’s not likely.
PHI @ CAR (-1.5) - I have concerns about Jake Delhomme playing like he did in
last year’s playoffs and Deangelo Williams regressing to his career averages after
last season’s breakout performance. But on the other hand, PHI’s got a new D coord,
they lost Brian Dawkins and they’re on the road. A spread of 1.5 means ‘they’ are
asking me who’ll win. CAR is at home, so they’ll win. CAR is the pick.
KC @ BAL (-13) – unlike the DET/NO tilt, there’s no reason to take KC. Their QB
is hurt and they’re on the road, trying to work out the kinks of their new
offensive scheme. Oh, BTW, THEY fired their O-coord, too. No thank you;
take BAL. This is also my survivor pick o’ the week.
NYJ @ HOU (-4.5) – Can’t back a rookie QB on the road. NYJ has a couple stars
on D out due to suspensions and HOU’s O is just too strong. HOU is the pick.
WAS @ NYG (-6.5) – hometown discount applies here. Been watching the Giants for
years and they rarely cover the spread; they usually play down to their
opposition. Not gonna chance it. Take WAS.
SF @ ARI (-6.5) - the 9ers new conservative O MAY keep things close, but their
D won’t be able to keep this close for all 60 minutes. I have concerns that ARI
can be as good as they were this year, but for one week, they are the pick.
STL @ SEA (-8.5) – this number is just too high b/c I’m bearish on both teams.
Both are allegedly going to run-heavy versions of the West Coast O, so I don’t
see either team getting out to a large lead. SEA has below-average RBs, while
STL has Sjax; advantage STL. Take them.
CHI @ GB (-3.5) – CHI’s D has a lot to prove and I want to see how Cutler directs
their O for an entire game before making conclusions going forward. I think GB can put some points
up on them and their D is underrated. GB is the pick at home during the Sunday
night game.
BUF @ NE (-11) – They can’t make this spread high enough. BUF just fired their
O-coord AND cut their starting left tackle. They MAY keep it close for a quarter
and give everyone a scare, but when the final gun goes off, NE should be up by at
least two TDs.
SD (-9.5) @ OAK – OAK could surprise, but not yet. Too many weapons for the Chargers and
even if Richard Seymour reports to Oak-town, it won’t help. Go with the ‘bolts.
{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
hey, they look great.
oh, guess where I was today?
I am curious to see what happens with the DET-NO game… I just have this feeling that the Lions are going to come out swinging, and, like you said, the Saints D may fold like a cheap suit. And Minnesota has a new QB? I didn’t hear anything!
CFT, I love NO by a lot and I’m looking for a reason to stay away. I hate big spreads, especially week one!
JMP, No clue!
i would only bring it up if it were one place.
if you want, i can have a trip report for you by mid-week
7-7 right now with a chance for 9-7. I feel good about this!